Researching and Planning Zero CO2 Emission Scenarios

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Scenario development study group 2009 シナリオ策定

I.Research Activities

(Graduate School of Energy Science) Keiichi Ishihara, Tetsuo Tezuka, Qi Zhang, Miguel Esteban
and Utama Nuki Aguya
(Institute of Advanced Energy) Satoshi Konishi and Yoshiyuki Watanabe
(Research Reactor Institute) Hironobu Unesaki

In this group, the following research topics were studied.

(1)Development of Energy Modeling Tools

 First, some modeling tools such as MARKEL or AIM were reviewed. Based on this information, an original modeling tool is currently being developed by the group. This new tool includes methods to estimate the demand, the introduction of new technologies with a probability assessment of each technology and the minimization of cumulative CO2 emissions. At present, a prototype of the model for the case of the Japanese electricity system has been completed.

(2)Evaluation of Renewable Energy Resources and Investigation of Necessary Technology Seeds

Investigation on the research and development of renewable energy, including road maps and cost estimations, were performed through by the Scenario Strategic Research Committee and interviews with specialists. The way to reflect these results on our scenario is also considered. Furthermore, the potential of renewable energy, absorption and emissions of green house gases and the present and future of energy demand and supply of electricity in the world were also analyzed.

(3)Development of Zero Emission Energy Scenarios

Using the tools above mentioned, two zero-emission electricity system scenarios are proposed. One is a scenario which maximizes the use of nuclear energy and the other includes mainly renewable energy with nuclear power supplying the rest of the electricity. In both scenarios, the technology for electricity storage becomes the bottleneck of the system. The research, however, shows that the effective utilization of electric cars and hydrogen energy can absorb the daily and seasonally fluctuations of electricity in the system.

(4)Consideration of Global Model

Introductory scenarios of renewable energy usage in South East Asian countries were investigated by the cost minimizations using a LEAP method. Moreover, the global scenarios showing zero-CO2 emission by the year 2100 were reviewed. To realize these zero-CO2 emissions, it was confirmed that a highly efficient energy conversion method from of renewable energy to electricity and hydrogen energy, and biomass energy carbon dioxide capture and storage (BECCS) are key technologies.

II.Interdisciplinary Group Research

The 8 research groups, consisting of PhD candidates and an adviser, studied zero-emission energy systems. The results were presented at the International Symposium in August and at the Annual Report Meeting in February. The detailed reports will be summarized at the end of March, 2010.

III.Scenario Strategic Research Committee

  The committee meeting was held two times, as follows:

  • (29th, May, 2009)The comments by the scenario group on the Mid-term GHG Reduction Target by Japanese government were presented. A discussion based on these comments was held.
  • (2nd, December, 2009)The CO2 zero-emission electricity system scenarios by 2100 in Japan were introduced. We had discussions about the necessary technologies and the validity of the proposed scenarios.
IV.Scenario Research and Advanced Research Group Joint Meeting

 We had two Joint Workshops, on the 11th of March, 2009 and 2nd of November, 2009. At the first meeting, the advanced research group introduced their studies and the scenario research group presented how the developments of technologies were important to the electricity production scenarios. It was noted that the sharing information is important.
 At the second meeting, the CO2 zero-emission electricity system scenarios by 2100 in Japan were presented by the scenario research group. The key technologies to realize the scenarios were discussed among members.